Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
India on Monday joined a US-led initiative to set up an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework to bind partner countries to achieve common goals, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserting that New Delhi will work with the stakeholders to make it an "inclusive and flexible" structure to pave the way for development, peace and prosperity in the region.
'Our policy is pro-Sri Lanka.' 'Burma is not the only girl on the beach in South Asia.''
'Now they're talking about changing the Constitution; they feel they have no reason now to hide their intentions.'
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
Arvind Subramanian, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was informally recommended to the post by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
India plans to keep its fiscal deficit within 3.9% of GDP.
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
The stock market, the Survey felt, had run away from underlying real economy indicators and asked if this indicated rational confidence or irrational exuberance.
Every time the Indian economy has faced headwinds due to international developments, the oil sector has played a crucial role, explains A K Bhattacharya.
RBI has taken a balanced approach in the credit policy considering various developments across the globe and their near term impact.
BMS, a union affiliated to RSS, plans rally at Delhi's Ramlila Ground on Nov 17; SJM to protest on Oct 29.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that India's economic growth is a 'natural by-product' of his nine-year-old government's political stability, as he expressed optimism that it will be a developed nation by 2047 with 'corruption, casteism and communalism' having no place in our national life.
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
The Reserve Bank may go for a final 25 basis points increase in the current rate hike cycle next week and a reduction would come in only by the end of third quarter of FY24, economists at Axis Bank said on Wednesday. As per media reports, RBI officials met economists on Tuesday, and the latter have suggested the central bank to go for a 25 basis points hike in key rates. Since May 2022, the RBI has hiked rates by 250 basis points, hurting borrowers and some are already concerned about loan tenors extending beyond their working lives as a result of the hikes.
If the war in the Israel-Gaza region escalates into a larger West Asian conflict, it could pose problems.
Any narrative against the Dravidian model may impact the BJP's prospects in Tamil Nadu. This may explain why the BJP in Tamil Nadu is placing more emphasis on corruption allegations against the DMK, even as the party focuses nationally on the Sanatana controversy.
China's birth rate has been in decline since 2017, despite easing of the 'one-child policy' in order to avert an incoming demographic crisis.
The Congress leader asked the government to not resort to further unorthodox, short-term economic measures that can cause any more uncertainty in the economy.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
Report card of the Narendra Modi-led central government for the first six months, on the basis of ratings by top CEOs, under key parameters.
If Chinese growth starts falling, sharply or otherwise, the risk on trade might reverse.
RBI, in its first bi-monthly monetary policy statement, left the short-term lending rate, or repo rate, unchanged at 8 per cent and the cash reserve ratio static at 4 per cent.
Indian fintechs and associated entities are hoping that the Union Budget 2024 will provide a boost and empower firms to extend their reach beyond Tier-II regions, with an emphasis on supporting enterprises led by women. The fintech industry, which has witnessed regulatory reforms over the last year, expects the Budget, scheduled to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, will further encourage financial inclusion, empower micro-small-medium enterprises (MSMEs) with lending solutions, and push for upskilling initiatives for the country's young workforce.
India needs to strengthen its economic growth, says IMF.
'The rising cost of construction, the cost of doing business, high compliance, and inflation/interest rates going up have already reduced returns to single digits.'
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
'The Modi regime is not willing to use its huge political capital for taking any economic policy measure that it fears might undermine that political strength, says A K Bhattacharya.
If Pitroda's blunder cost him his office, what should the BJP's unrepentant attitude cost it?, asks Shyam G Menon.
Recent rates cuts by most banks may not have a significant impact on margins, say analysts.
'Historically, equities have consistently outperformed debt, gold, property, and other assets over a reasonable period.'
If Indira Gandhi hadn't targeted the RSS, Narendra Modi wouldn't be sitting pretty with his second majority and looking at a third, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
India is keen to strengthen its partnership with Russia on Arctic subjects and there is immense scope for cooperation in the field of energy as well, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said.
'... and without necessarily calling them Economic Surveys.' 'One should stick to the main focus, which is to give people a good perspective on how the economy is doing.'
We may now be experiencing the darker side of the massive monetary stimulus of past years, said Rajan.
Lenders in India, comprising banks and finance companies, anticipate robust growth in retail credit during the upcoming festival season, stretching from September to December 2023. This expectation is based on resilient demand, government initiatives, and elections in key states.
Most analysts had predicted a decline in real estate fixed asset investment.
TCS is expected to report a 5 per cent QoQ (USD) growth in revenues, highest in our coverage, while Wipro's IT Services revenue growth could be closer to 1.1 per cent QoQ (USD terms)."
